Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
