🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

However this year's race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent strugglers ascending together. During an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still